Is There a Limit To Human Life? A Bayesian Analysis of the Maximum Lifespan -
A longstanding debate among biologists, demographers, and everyday people surrounds whether or not there is a limit to the human lifespan. The answer may have profound effects on government and private sector planning, yet previous research tends to make bold and untestable claims, casting doubt on their credibility. In this talk, I will present a Bayesian, statistical analysis of the human lifespan using tools from demography. Through careful data analysis, mortality models, and population projections, we quantify the probability that humans will reach certain advanced ages this century and explore the uncertainty in our forecasts.